Methodology

1) Core Principles

YearBull is designed as a comparative analytical system. Its metrics describe relative behavior, structural quality, and positioning of crypto assets within the market. The system is descriptive, not predictive, and does not provide financial advice.

• Data-driven
• Comparative by design
• Dynamic and adaptive
• Independent from narratives or discretionary opinions

2) Market Context and Market Bull Index (MBI)

The Market Bull Index (MBI) represents the overall market regime. It reflects whether the crypto market environment is broadly risk-on, neutral, or risk-off.

MBI is calculated at the market level and applies equally to all assets. It does not alter raw asset data stored in the system.

At the presentation level, MBI may influence how asset-level metrics are interpreted or displayed, in order to reflect prevailing market conditions. This contextual overlay ensures that asset signals are not viewed in isolation from the broader market environment.

3) Market Core Definition

Several YearBull metrics rely on comparison against a market reference set, referred to as the market core.

The market core is defined dynamically as a group of large-cap, risk-bearing crypto assets. Stablecoins, wrapped or derivative representations, and exchange-issued tokens are excluded. As market capitalization changes over time, the composition of the market core adjusts automatically.

This approach ensures that market-relative signals remain representative of actual capital allocation in the crypto market.

4) What YearBull metrics are

YearBull provides a set of proprietary, model-based indicators designed to help compare cryptocurrencies and observe how market strength is distributed across assets over time.

The core metrics include:

• YearBull Rank – a relative ranking that compares assets based on current market strength characteristics.
• Bull Score – a directional strength indicator reflecting bullish behavior under the model.
• Risk – a modeled sensitivity label related to volatility and adverse moves.
• Cycle – a simplified market-phase classification.

These metrics are comparative, stateful, and research-oriented. They are not designed to predict prices or identify “best investments”.

5) Data sources & processing

YearBull combines market data inputs (such as price, volume, and market capitalization) with internal historical processing to derive its metrics.

YearBull metrics are primarily based on YearBull’s own stored historical data rather than short-term external aggregates.

6) YearBull Rank

YearBull Rank is a proprietary composite ranking designed to measure relative asset strength across the market, independent of overall market regime.

The rank compares assets to one another using normalized behavioral and structural signals. It is independent of market regime, sentiment, or MBI.

The ranking evaluates how assets behave relative to other assets in the market by combining normalized signals such as:

• relative performance versus other assets in the market
• trend persistence and structural behavior
• liquidity and participation intensity
• volatility and drawdown characteristics

What YearBull Rank represents:

• In rising markets, higher-ranked assets tend to exhibit stronger relative participation
  and structural resilience compared to the broader market,
  rather than simply higher short-term returns.
• In falling markets, higher-ranked assets tend to preserve structure better or recover faster relative to other assets.
• In sideways markets, higher-ranked assets often exhibit localized strength or accumulation.

How to interpret:

• Lower rank values (e.g., #12) indicate stronger relative market strength under the model.
• Higher rank values (e.g., #700) indicate weaker or less favorable relative conditions.
• Ranks are dynamic and comparative — an asset’s rank can change even if its price does not.

YearBull Rank is not a momentum leaderboard, not a list of top gainers, and not a prediction of future performance.

Large benchmark assets (such as Bitcoin) often rank lower during periods when market leadership shifts toward higher-beta or more locally active assets, even if the benchmark itself remains structurally strong.

7) Bull Score

Bull Score is a proprietary score intended to reflect directional bullish characteristics relative to the crypto market core under the YearBull model.

The market core is defined dynamically using large-cap, risk-bearing crypto assets. Stablecoins, wrapped assets, derivative representations, and exchange tokens are excluded.

How to interpret

• Higher Bull Score indicates stronger bullish behavior relative to large-cap market-leading assets.
• Lower Bull Score indicates weaker bullish characteristics or loss of momentum.
• Bull Score is not a forecast and does not guarantee price appreciation.

8 ) Risk

Risk is a model-based label describing an asset’s sensitivity to volatility and adverse price movements, interpreted in the context of prevailing market conditions.

How to interpret

• Low suggests relatively lower modeled sensitivity.
• High suggests relatively higher modeled sensitivity.
• Risk labels do not eliminate the possibility of losses.

9) Cycle

Cycle is a simplified classification that summarizes an asset’s current positioning within a broader market cycle, taking into account prevailing market regime signals.

How to interpret

• Cycle labels are model-derived and can change over time.
• Different assets can be in different phases simultaneously.
• Cycle should be viewed as contextual information, not timing advice.

10) Updates & time windows

YearBull metrics evolve over time as new data becomes available.

• Market fields may update frequently depending on data availability.
• Derived metrics rely on historical context and may update on a scheduled cadence.
• New or low-history assets may initially converge toward neutral baseline values.

11) Limitations & edge cases

• Low-liquidity assets can exhibit extreme behavior and unstable rankings.
• Micro-cap and low-liquidity assets may temporarily rank highly due to localized activity, even when broader market relevance or long-term sustainability is limited.
• New assets may lack sufficient historical depth.
• Methodology improvements can affect historical comparability, particularly when relative market baselines are refined.

YearBull metrics are research tools and should be used alongside independent analysis.

12) FAQ

Do you publish the exact formulas?

No. YearBull metrics are proprietary. We explain their intent, interpretation, and limitations without disclosing specific formulas.

Are YearBull metrics investment advice?

No. All metrics are informational only and do not guarantee outcomes.

Why do micro-cap or meme tokens sometimes appear at the top?

Because YearBull Rank measures relative market strength, not asset quality, size, or safety.

Are you affiliated with exchanges or issuers?

No. YearBull is fully independent.